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Good Evening Horsemen Traders!
Last week was a bit disappointing as the market was unable to break out of the 390 resistance area with conviction. SPY 0.00%↑ ended up dropping back down to 372 where it starting to find a higher support from our 360 low which we are currently working off of.
The fact the market didn’t make a new low still gives bulls hope that this could be a higher low off 360 for a potential uptrend back up to 400+. As you can see from the SPY 0.00%↑ chart below if we can hold 375 as our key support level I think we can retest 390 area and possible breakout for a push to 400 before we pull back again. If that bullish thesis fails then watch out for a retest of 360 and maybe lower. Look at the SPY 0.00%↑ key levels and chart for a better understanding of where I am putting my key levels.
On the micro front last week I had a ton of good calls both off my Weekly Watch-List as well as my live discord alerts. You can see some of our best gainers from last week by clicking HERE.
As far as sectors go I will be watching MonkeyPox, Female Contraception, China plays and a few Food. Sector momentum has proven to work even in this bearish market. Some of the tickers on this week’s Watch-List are based off these sectors.
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Lets get right into this week’s SPY key levels and the tickers we’ll be watching for next week.
SPY 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 375
- If key level can hold support then i'm looking for resistance targets at 382, 387, 391, 400.
- If key level cannot hold support then my next bounce areas are 370 then 365.
Thesis:
- Last week's failure to get back to 400 but hold a higher support level tells me we can see more upside before a deeper pull back.
- If Key Level fails then look for a bounce at 360 for another chance at going higher.
- If 360 can't hold support then 350-340 is next consolidation at support area.
Enjoy the rest of our FHT Weekly Watch-List below…
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CBIO 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 1.65 (200ema)
- If key level can hold support i'm looking for resistance targets 1.85 (also breakout entry), 2, 2.5 then 3
- If key level cannot hold support i'm looking for bounce areas at 1.55 then 1.45
Thesis:
- Recent News: "Catalyst Biosciences Announces Plan to Distribute Cash to Stockholders"
- "Catalyst Biosciences Stock More Than Doubles After Assets Sale To Vertex"
- Gapped up on asset sale to vertex and proceeded to uptrend for the past month
- Recently broke out of the daily 200ema resistance area on recent news.
- Short ratio lower
- I'm looking for this to continue uptrend as long as it can stay above the 200ema at 1.65
- Watch for a retest of the 200ema but I think we can get more upside to 2 before that happens.
- ABCD pattern with breakout at 1.85
CHWY 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 35.5
- If key level can hold support my next resistance targets are 38, 40 (40 breakout entry) then 43 with 200ema at 46.5
- If key level cannot hold support my bounce areas are 34 then 32.5 near the 20/50ema
Thesis:
- Positive News Flow after Earnings
- "Chewy stock soars 19% following surprise profit"
- "Chewy's stock jumps after Wedbush analyst recommended buying"
- "Chewy stock rises after Needham upgrades shares to Buy"
- "Chewy Shares Could Help You Play Defense During Stock Slump"
- Uptrend holding with a pivot move at 34 and breaking out minor resistance at at 35.5
- 20 and 50ema crossing over on daily which is possible sign for bigger move coming
SIGA 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 12
- If key level can hold support then my next resistance target is 13, 14 with breakout entry at 15
- If key level cannot hold support i'm looking for bounce area at 11.5.
Thesis:
- Nailed this one last week with entry at 10.80 area.
- Looking for more upside here on this MonkeyPox play
- SIGA is one of a few MonkeyPox plays but i believe this one is leading the sector
- Bullish Pennant forming with a breakout area at 13, if that breaks we can see a bigger move.
- Volume is steady and increasing
- Could start to see some nice short covering up in the 13's
PFE 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 51.5
- If key level can hold support i'm looking for resistance targets at 52.5, 53 then 54.5
- If key level cannot hold support my next bounce area is at the 20/50ema at 51
Thesis:
- Positive News Flow
- "Pfizer (PFE) Seeks FDA Nod for Its Oral Antiviral COVID Pill"
- "UPDATE 4-US FDA wants COVID boosters targeting Omicron BA.4, BA.5 subvariants"
- "Pfizer Stock Jumps On $3.2 Billion U.S. Covid Vaccine Sale, FDA Paxlovid Approval Filing"
- 20/50ema getting close to crossover
- Getting close to trend line resistance area, watching for a breakout or traders remorse move.
- Breakout can get to 55 before a pull back.
SAVE 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 24
- If key level can hold support i'm looking for resistance targets at 25 with that being a possible breakout entry area followed by 26, 27 targets
- If key level cannot hold support then my bounce area is 23.5 (200ema) then 22.75 near the 20ema.
Thesis:
- Stock really starting to heat up with these acquisitions talks
- Bidding war in full swing
- Shareholder meeting Postponed for July 8th, looking for a run up.
- 20/50 ema crossed over and we're trading above the 200ema which is bullish.
- Double top at 24.5 watching for us to break that which would become our new support key level.
Economic Calendar
07/05 RBA Interest Rate Decision (12:30 AM ET)
07/05 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET)
07/06 S&P Global Services/Composite PMIs (9:45 AM ET)
07/06 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET)
07/06 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET)
07/06 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET)
07/07 ADP Employment Change (8:15 AM ET)
07/07 Balance Of Trade (8:30 AM ET)
07/07 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
07/08 Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET)
07/08 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET)
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