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Good Evening Horsemen Traders!
Stocks had a ton of volatility this week dropping 15 points on SPY 0.00%↑ just to close on Friday back where it started.
Luckily we had our trusty SPY key levels to keep us focused with a plan. My key level of 385 quickly turned into a short being unable to hold support. SPY hit 370 my second bounce area before rebounding back to 385 key level. This week i’m keeping my same key levels as last week.
Last week gave us a a lot of economic news including inflation data, CPI, PPI numbers and retails sales numbers which surprised to the upside. Earnings season kicked off with the banks JPM 0.00%↑ to the downside and C 0.00%↑ to the upside.
On the micro front last week we had several great swing trades off the FHT Weekly Watch-List as well as my live discord alerts. You can see some of our best gainers from last week by clicking HERE.
Sectors to Watch - 7.18.22
- Airlines: DAL 0.00%↑ AAL 0.00%↑ SAVE 0.00%↑ JBLU 0.00%↑ JETS 0.00%↑
- Crypto: MARA 0.00%↑ COIN 0.00%↑ ANY 0.00%↑ RIOT 0.00%↑
- Cannabis: TLRY 0.00%↑ ACB 0.00%↑ CRON 0.00%↑ MJ 0.00%↑
-MonkeyPox: SIGA 0.00%↑ CODX 0.00%↑
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Lets get into this week’s SPY key levels and a few of the tickers we’ll be watching for next week.
SPY 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 385
- If key level can hold support i’m looking for next resistance targets 387-390, 397-400 then a possible push to 415. 400 is a possible breakout entry.
- If key level cannot hold support my next bounce areas are 380-379 area then 375. If 375 breaks look for a bigger move to 370-360 then a new recent low.
Thesis:
- Last week I called for a slow and steady uptrend.
- I'll be looking for 380 to hold support for a push higher
- Expecting a pretty choppy week based on Earnings Reports this week.
- There should be plenty of Post ER plays to take advantage of as long as broader markets hold above 370
- European inflation and economic data this week. (see bottom of post)
APEN 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 5.25
- If key level can hold support then i'm looking for next resistance area at 5.5 then 5.7 (200ema), then 6 (breakout entry), 6.5
- If key level cannot hold support my next bounce area is 5-4.9 area then 4.7 area, followed by a gap fill in the 4.30's
Thesis:
- Recent news reported last week: "Apollo EndoSurgery's New Obesity Endoscopic Systems Receive FDA Nod"
- All moves are contingent on broader markets not dumping. Ideally we stay in uptrend but consolidation is good also.
- 20/50 ema looking to crossover.
- 200ema on daily at 5.71. RSI over 70 in strong uptrend
- Volume lower while price holds higher lows.
AAL 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 14.14-14
- If key level can hold support then i'm looking for next resistance targets at 15 (also a breakout entry), then 17 to the 200ema (gap fill).
- If key level cannot hold then i'm looking for 13.5 for my bounce area.
- Earnings Report July 21 Thursday.
Thesis:
- Recent news: "company announced it expects second-quarter sales to increase 12% from pre-pandemic levels"
- Biden admin announced 1Billion in infrastructure for the airline industry.
- Price consolidating around the 20ema setting up for a break higher.
- RSI at 51 running range, MACD approaching 0 after crossing over a possible break of downtrend.
- ER on Thursday could be a sell the news, looking to play a potential run up this week buying dips early in the week.
- If my average is good going into ER I may hold as sector momentum is building.
BBBY 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 5
- If key level can hold support then i'm looking for next resistance targets at 5.25(breakout entry), 5.5, 6 then 6.3 (gap fill)
- If key level cannot hold support then my next bounce area is 4.90's then 4.70's
Thesis:
- Retail sales numbers beat expectations last week. Putting eyes on retail names WMT 0.00%↑ KSS 0.00%↑ M 0.00%↑
- Stock beaten down holding a higher support.
- Looking for a bottom bounce play to fill the gap at 6.3
- Possible Traders Remorse off CEO buying $200k in shares
C 0.00%↑
- Key Level 49 (50ema)
- If key level can hold support my next resistance targets are 50 (breakout entry), followed by 52-53 area with 56.5 at the daily 200ema
- If key level cannot hold support then my next bounce areas are 48 then 47.25 (20ema).
- Short Side: 50 is going to be a resistance area to watch for either a breakout entry for more upside or a good short on a Traders Remorse pull back.
Thesis:
- Earnings Report last week: "Citi Beats estimates with Trading Revenue"
- Stock surged 45-50 gaining over 13% on Friday.
- I'll be looking for either more upside or a traders remorse dip to take advantage of possible more uptrend off earnings announcement.
- Based on Friday's action I'm expecting a pull back to find and confirm higher support for more bulls to jump in for bull rally.
- Excellent 86M volume on Friday
TLRY 0.00%↑
- Key Level of 3.25
- If key level can hold support my next resistance targets are 3.5, 3.75 with breakout entry at 4 for more upside
- If key level cannot hold support my bounce area is 3 which is a triple bottom. Need to reexamine if 3 breaks.
Thesis:
- Shares "trading higher following reports Senate Democrats are planning to introduce a marijuana decriminalization bill next week."
- The entire MJ sector got a boost at least for a day last week. I think its worth watching given how much volume it got Thursday
- Looking for a pivot move or a "Traders Remorse" set up to confirm bullish sentiment and take stocks higher.
- We might see a nice short on a bigger pump as well.