Good Evening Horsemen Traders!
—The Week of June 28th RECAP—
Last week saw SPY continue to break into all time highs (ATH), XBI and IWM saw a pull back and some consolidation. I’m going into next week with a 50/50 bias on the markets. SPY is pretty extended with 20ema at 425. I will be watching for a pull back on the SPY, but as always we’re going to have patience and wait for the market to do it’s thing before we start picking trades.
I wanted to quickly mention our upcoming Short Side Newsletter where we will focus on bearish or short set-ups in the market. Being able to short sell gives traders another way to benefit from moves in the market.
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$VXRT - Biotech had a bad week and VXRT was no difference. We had the gap fill to 8 but quickly broke down the next day. Currently trading under the 20ema, holding above the 50ema at 7.5. Watching to see if 7 can hold support for a reversal back up to the high 8’s
$TBLT - Had a major pull back under the 20/50ema. Closed at LOD on Friday, watching to see how price reacts to low .70’s. Infrastructure play
$USEG - We had the right idea on USEG however price action was very choppy due to a lot of day traders in and out of this one. Make sure you aren’t buying the pumps on this one.
$UBER - Gave us some nice dip buys above the 20ema. Closing at HOD on Friday. Watching to see if this can break and hold above 52 for a run up to the 55 area. Extra eyes on ride hailing companies with DIDI ipo.
$WEN - We had a nice move off support 23 to 23.5 but failed to breakout any higher. Still on watch for next week as the range for this is pretty incredible, on top of that the company has strong fundamentals.
Below is are Weekly Watch-List for this week. Enjoy!
$VTNR
Float: 36M
Cash: 16.4M per Q1 ER
Support: 10.75 (prior resistance) then 10 then 9
Resistance: 12 then 13.75
News:
- June 30 - "Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) yesterday announced that it has inked a deal to purchase the used motor oil collection and re-refinery business from Vertex Energy, Inc."
- May 26 - "Vertex Energy To Acquire Alabama Refinery and Related Logistics Assets"
Thesis:
- Energy Play
- This one has had some nice volatility coming off of a huge gap up on Price Target increases and News.
- Recently gaped up on Clean Harbors news, fell three days in a row however and filled gap nicely around 11
- Looking for a reversal candle to come into play shortly as our "Traders Remorse" dip looks to be hitting support at 11
- 20 ema is at 8.90 where stock bounced nicely off of two weeks ago
- Looking for those intra-day set ups when we support come in on the daily chart.
- RSI resetting under 70 while MACD is still in strong uptrend but curling down a bit.
- PT's in the 20's and with OIL still in the mid 70's we could see more eyes on the energy sector.
- Short volume is very high right now, need to see some covering this week.
- I think this needs to come down a little bit and find some good support before we see a reversal.
$ANY
Float: 5M
Support: 2.5-2.6 area
Resistance: 3 3.2 then 3.7
News:
- May 27 - "7.9 Million Offering priced at 1.25
- June 7 - "Gryphon Digital Mining Announces Merger with Sphere 3D (Nasdaq: ANY) With World's Top Influencers As Investors"
- June 8 - "The merger is expected to close in the third quarter of 2021,"
- June 9 - "Gryphon Digital Mining and Sphere 3D Corp Announce Agreement to Purchase 250,000 Carbon Offset Credits"
Thesis:
- Crypto/Merger Play
- Interesting bitcoin play brought to us by one of our FHT Discord Members
- Company focused on "green" crypto mining. Also very cheap when it comes to other crypto mining plays
- Had a very nice day last Tuesday with increased volume breaking out of minor
consolidation.
- Gaped down the next day however but has been making higher lows since telling us we could have uptrend continuation
- Holding nice trendline from back in Late May
- Looking to load position around 2.5 area on a dip but also watching to see if stock can keep making higher lows.
- Had a nice gap fill back around 2 and the 200ema
- If 2.35 support breaks watch for 200ema to be support level around 2.
- Q3 merger expected to close, lets see if we can get a merger run up out of this. Decent catalyst.
$DIDI
New China Ride Hailing IPO, not much data out on it yet.
Support: 14.5 then 14
Resistance: 15.8 then 16.6
Thesis:
- DIDI went public on the same day as the Chinese Communist Party's 100 year anniversary which was looked at with disdain by Chinese authorities.
- There are some serious headwinds taking place currently with DIDI and it's IPO in the United States.
- Chinese Cyber Security probe has been issued which is suppose to conclude in 45 days. (This is a catalyst traders should watch)
- The probe is focused on data transferring from DIDI which is one of the biggest collectors of movement data in the country.
- Chinese officials think there could be some national security risks involved with DIDI being traded on US markets.
- Chinese Gov removed DIDI app from app stores, which could hurt revenue.
- There are also links to Uber, Uber is one of the biggest shareholders in DIDI
- Uber and DIDI had a kind of merger where DIDI took over Ubers market share in China
- All this is to say there are some serious headwinds ahead for DIDI.
- How do we play this?
- Well first I think we need to be patient and look for a potential downtrend and support level. Once we see this we could very well see a run up into the end of the Chinese gov probe
- If we break 14 support I'll be watching for a new psychological support level to come in. As usual we will wait for a retest and hold above that support before we consider entry.
- We should see some nice intra-day volatility in this one whichever way it goes.
$AGEN
Bias: 50/50
Float: 192M
Cash: 119M Per Q1 ER
Support: 5.4-5.25 (20ema)
Resistance: 5.5 then 6
News:
- May 18 - "Bristol Myers Inks $1.6B Licensing Agreement For Agenus' Bispecific Antibody Program In Solid Tumors"
Thesis:
- Bio Play
- Consolidating at resistance for the past 2 weeks, we should see a move here either way
- Stock chart is pretty extended with a gap up at 3.25 on BM Agreement
- If bulls can't break out of the 5.6 area for a run on 6 then we will see price drop first to 5 area then possible to 4.5. Money to be made in both directions
- RSI consolidating above 70
- MACD crossed over above 0 not giving us much to go on.
- Three potential plays off this. The short which is looking for a break down of the 5.5-5.4 area, second buy dips at support with tight SL or third wait for volume to come in and give us a intra-day set up
- Stock making higher lows and still in uptrend.
$CYCN
Float: 24M
Cash: 58M per Q4 ER
Support: 3-75-4 (200ema area)
Resistance: 4.15-4.30 then 4.5
News:
- June 4 - " Cyclerion Out-Licenses Praliciguat to Akebia, Announces $18M Capital Raise"
- Nice insider buying recently.
Catalyst:
- "MELAS Phase 2a study underway with top-line data anticipated in mid-2021; Phase 2a study Alzheimer’s disease with vascular pathology expected to initiate in mid-2021;"
Thesis:
- Bio Catalyst/Technical play
- Stock had some very nice moves a few weeks back with the news above combined with insider buying.
- I like the upcoming mid-2021 catalyst which should be approaching soon also.
- On the chart I love the 200ema being used as support, this gives us a strong level of support to work with
- The chart is showing a ABCD pattern, which we went over in one of our latest FHT Trading Technique videos.
- Looking to start a position as close to the 200ema (3.75) as possible with a Stop Loss around the 3.50 area.
- We made higher lows from last Thursday to Friday with 4 as resistance
- If ABCD pattern holds we should see a break of 4.15 then test of 4.4 area.
- When playing catalyst run up its important to get in at solid support and leave plenty of room to add if dips come. Always have a SL on these as well, I recommend mental stops
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